Flawed assumptions, surprising trends: At Rowan, political analyst Steve Kornacki breaks down the 2024 presidential election

The results of the 2024 presidential election exposed flawed assumptions and surprising trends, according to MSNBC and NBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki.

Kornacki broke down voting pattern data before an audience of more than 200 Rowan University students, faculty, alumni, and community members during “So, That Happened: Understanding the 2024 Elections,” a free public event on Dec. 5 presented by the Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship (RIPPAC).

Using exit poll data, Kornacki shared how the gender gap and shifts in political leanings by race, ethnicity, age, and income affected the 2024 presential election, in which Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump defeated his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.

While the gender gap in the 2024 presidential election was among the highest on record since 1980, it underperformed compared to Democrats’ expectations, according to Kornacki.

“The Republicans benefited more from the gender gap than the Democrats,” Kornacki said.

Democrats’ optimistic expectations were informed by President Joe Biden’s strong victory margin among women in the 2020 election and backlash to the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, which overturned 1973’s Roe v. Wade decision on abortion. Exit polling data doesn’t bear out Democrats’ assumption that abortion is the central issue to most voters, according to Kornacki.

“I don't think the abortion issue moved the needle politically,” Kornacki said.

What did move the needle was the Trump coalition’s success in winning over young male voters and non-white voters, he said.

The Trump campaign “felt there was a way in with these voters through inroads that hadn’t been possible or realized by Republicans in the past,” Kornacki said.

Comparing the results of the 2020 and 2024 elections shows significant shifts in voting patterns based on race and ethnicity. Trump lost ground with white voters, who make up around 70% of the electorate, but still won this population by a double-digit margin, Kornacki said. The former president made significant gains among Black men and Asian Americans and achieved the highest percentage of votes ever recorded in an exit poll for a Republican candidate among Hispanic voters, a growing segment of the American voting population, he added.

“There's never been a Republican candidate whose non-white concentration of their coalition has been as high in a presidential race as what we’re seeing right here in 2024 with Donald Trump,” Kornacki explained. “If these trends continue, the combination of a rising non-white population and the drift away from Democrats and toward Republicans can alter the landscape significantly.” 

While Republicans had long been considered the party of wealthy Americans and the Democrats were perceived as largely representing the working class, election data based on income level reveals that this is no longer the case, he noted. In fact, contrary to widely held expectations, Kornacki presented exit polling that showed in 2024, Harris won more voters making more than $100,000 annually and Trump won among those making less than $100,000—a complete reversal since 2020.

“This is a trend that was playing out over time, and when Trump came in, it exploded,” Kornacki said.

For both parties, challenges lie ahead, Kornacki emphasized.

“Democrats fear that this is going to get worse,” Kornacki said, noting the trends of diminishing support for the party among traditionally Democrat-leaning populations. “The challenge for Republicans is, can they get Trump-specific voters back to vote for Republican candidates when Trump isn’t on the ballot?”

Whatever the future holds, Kornacki noted that surprising political shifts in 2024 in areas like Passaic County and Hudson County—where there were dramatic swings toward Trump among traditionally Democratic Hispanic voters—will bring more attention to New Jersey.

“This sets up an interesting 2025 and 2026,” he said. “Nationally, more people are going to be watching New Jersey this time around.”

Kornacki’s appearance was co-sponsored by the Center for Interdisciplinary Studies, the College of Humanities & Social Sciences, the journalism, law and justice studies, political science and economics, and radio, television and film departments, the American Studies program and the John H. Martinson Honors College.