Rowan researcher: COVID-19 spread slowing down in N.J.

Did we hit the peak?

Social distancing measures have significantly slowed the spread of new coronavirus cases in New York and New Jersey, the hardest hit states in the nation, according to a new analysis by Rowan University researcher Dr. Anthony Breitzman.

Using data reported as of April 5 by the N.J. Department of Health and the COVID Tracking Project among others, Breitzman compared case growth rates in each state, and examined the county-by-county spread in New Jersey. 

The numbers are dire, Breitzman said, but the data reveals a glimmer of good news.

See state-by-state data.

“Cases are still growing rapidly, but at a rate much slower than last week and the week before,” Breitzman said. 

“Things are bad, but there is evidence that social distancing and staying home is starting to slow down the rate of infection,” added Breitzman, an associate professor of computer science and research at Rowan’s College of Science & Mathematics.

New York’s cases, for example, are now doubling every seven days. Two weeks ago, they were doubling every 1.6 days. New Jersey’s cases are now doubling every 5.4 days. Two weeks ago, they were doubling every 2.2 days. See Breitzman's New York-New Jersey graph.

Elsewhere in the region, Pennsylvania (doubling every 4.2 days) and Delaware (doubling every 3.9 days) need to work harder to slow down the spread of cases there.  

Breitzman’s county-by-county examination shows cases are spreading fastest in Atlantic and Cape May counties, where rates are doubling about every 2.5 days, or about twice the overall state rate. 

Other counties with troubling growth rates include Burlington, Cumberland, Mercer, Warren, Morris, Middlesex, Passaic, and Hudson.

Though it’s been hit hardest by the pandemic, Bergen County’s growth rates have slowed down, and are now doubling every 5.1 days.

The latest numbers show some improvement. 

The week of April 5 marked the country's highest number of COVID-19 deaths so far, but more recent data reported as of April 12 shows the number of daily reported deaths are starting to decline, Breitzman found.

As of Monday, April 13, the state Department of Health reported 64,584 coronavirus cases statewide, and 2,443 deaths.