Rowan Poly Sci Profs Discuss N.J. Governor Race

Rowan University political scientists Larry Butler and Bruce Caswell believe the November 3 defeat of N.J. Gov. Jon Corzine by Republican Chris Christie caught few astute observers by surprise.

Christie, a former U.S. Attorney who built a reputation fighting corruption, rode a wave of dissatisfaction with Corzine right to the Governor's Mansion.

Corzine, the one-time co-chairman of Wall Street banking firm Goldman Sachs and a one term U.S. senator, lost by a margin of 49 to 45 percent (roughly 100,000 votes, according to the Associated Press).

The reasons? New Jersey's economy is weak, property taxes are rising, there's high unemployment, and Corzine, whose single term in office was interrupted by a nearly fatal 2007 car crash, simply isn't popular, Butler and Caswell said.

"The main thing was the electorate long ago decided it didn't want Jon Corzine to be governor," said Prof. Butler, chair of the political science department.

Both sides ran negative campaigns but with Christie at one point polling double digits ahead of the incumbent, Corzine and his staff knew his only option was a negative tack that even took shots at Christie's weight, Butler said.

"(Voters) didn't want Corzine so the only question was, could they be convinced they didn't want Christie either?" said Butler.

Christie took exception with Corzine camp advertising that focused on his weight but also took ownership of the issue.

"When it went from criticizing policy proposals to making insinuations about his weight it looked like a real cheap shot," Butler said. "I think it was a strong counterpunch when he took control of that issue."

Still, Butler said, the main issue in the campaign was the economy.

"Voters are financially strapped," he said. "When voters are in a bad mood they tend to vote against the party in charge."

Prof. Caswell believes the economy was certainly an issue but isn't convinced New Jerseyans think Christie will fix it.

"Christie won because he wasn't Jon Corzine," Caswell said.

Both Caswell and Butler said third party candidate Chris Daggett, whose campaign seemed to build momentum in the final weeks, made little difference with most voters.

Caswell said despite active campaigning on Corzine's behalf by President Obama, the election was not a referendum on the president's popularity. Nor, he said, was it especially more negative than past gubernatorial contests.

As for Christie, whose campaign promised many things, from fewer holidays for state workers to lower income and corporate business taxes, both Caswell and Butler said he has his work cut out for him.

"If Christie keeps his promise of cutting taxes he'll have to cut aid to the municipalities and that would increase property taxes," Caswell said.

Further, the new Republican governor has a Democrat-controlled state legislature with whom he must work to get things done.

"All the things he's promising require legislation and the Legislature is still in Democratic control and that will limit what he can do as governor," Caswell said. "I do, however, think it's possible he can do something with corruption."

Christie, while U.S. Attorney, indicted and convicted dozens of prominent public officials. Caswell said a strong Uniform Code of Ethics adopted about four years ago could help the incoming governor.

"It's a very strong ethics law but where it's broken down is with the leadership and enforcement," Caswell said. "Is Christie really a corruption fighter? We will find out."